Estimation of Final Size of COVID-19 Epidemic in Balochistan Province, Pakistan: Final Size of COVID-19 Epidemic in Balochistan

Muhammad Arif; Aftab Kakar; Ehsan Larik

doi:10.37978/tijfs.v4i2.245

Authors

Muhammad Arif Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program, National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan Author
Aftab Kakar Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program, National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan Author
Ehsan Larik Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program, National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37978/tijfs.v4i2.245

Keywords:

Covid-19, Estimation, Prediction, Prediction Model, SIR Model

Abstract

COVID-19 is a new disease that is spreading very fast in Pakistan. Cases have been reported from all of the provinces including Balochistan. The first two confirmed cases in Pakistan had travel history by road from Iran to Balochistan, hence SIR model used to predict the magnitude of the disease in Balochistan from May 2020 on wards when lock down and other social distancing measures were loosen up by the government of Balochistan. Our Prediction model shows that about 30,00000 individuals in Balochistan will be infected by 5^th of July 2020. Over all 25% of the total population of Balochistan will be affected by this disease with 98% (2940,000 ) recovery rate by the end of 15^th July 2020.

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